Local10 | Monday, October 6, 2025 
Tropical system likely to form, could strengthen as it nears eastern Caribbean later this week

Invest 95L could become Jerry before the week is out, passing near or north of the Lesser Antilles. A robust tropical wave – a ripple in east-to-west flowing trade winds at about 10,000 feet resembling an ocean wave – plodding through the central Atlantic this week is poised to develop into a tropical depression or named storm and could strengthen as it approaches the Leeward Islands of the northeastern Caribbean by Thursday or Friday. It’s still unclear if the system – designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center – will pose a direct threat to the islands, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, or steer north later this week and weekend, but recent trends favor a recurve just north and east. That said, it’s a little close for comfort and interests in these areas will want to continue to keep close tabs on the forecast. Intensity models are generally bullish on strengthening beyond mid-week, though guidance has fluctuated wildly and runs the gamut from a tropical depression to a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane before the week is out. While statistical models indicate persistent wind shear could cap strengthening, at times the high-resolution dynamical models like NOAA’s next-generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) have suggested the potential of robust or even rapid strengthening as it makes its closest approach to the northeastern Caribbean islands this weekend. Given the run-to-run inconsistencies of the…Read more