CNBC | Friday, August 7, 2026 
Trump teased an Iran deal that didn’t come, but markets soared. Here’s why it keeps happening

The Trump administration this week sparked enthusiasm that the U.S. and Iran could soon strike a deal on the Strait of Hormuz, driving down oil prices and sending stocks soaring — only for no deal to emerge. If that sounds familiar, it may be because President Donald Trump has claimed dozens of times that the U.S. is close to an agreement that will end the war it began more than five months ago. Investors have reacted to many of those claims with bursts of buying on hopes a breakthrough is near, even as the war instead appears to be widening and progress on Trump’s chief stated goal — containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions — is at a standstill. “There’s tremendous optimism bias in the market,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC. Markets continue to assume incentives for both the U.S. and Iran favor a diplomatic end to the war. But some investors seem to “see a deal as a time machine” that will reset the Middle East to its prewar status quo, even though that’s unlikely to happen, Croft said. The conflict of late centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for the global oil trade that has became a source of major leverage for Iran. Tehran’s ability to effectively close the strait — an open, untolled international waterway before the war started — triggered a global energy supply shock that drove up gas prices, exacerbated inflation and raised alarms about oil reserves...Read more